Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
27% | 73% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
27% | 73% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 27% |
| Coco Gauff | 18% |
| Iga Swiatek | 14% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 8% |
| Jessica Pegula | 8% |
| Elena Rybakina | 7% |
| Naomi Osaka | 5% |
| Marta Kostyuk | 4% |
| Iva Jovic | 3% |
| Qinwen Zheng | 2% |
| Linda Noskova | 2% |
| Emma Navarro | 1% |
| Anastasia Potapova | 1% |
| Sorana Cirstea | 1% |
| Anna Kalinskaya | 1% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 0% |
| Madison Keys | 0% |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 0% |
| Karolina Muchova | 0% |
| Marketa Vondrousova | 0% |
| Victoria Mboko | 0% |
| Clara Tauson | 0% |
| Belinda Bencic | 0% |
| Emma Raducanu | 0% |
| Jasmine Paolini | 0% |
| Paula Badosa | 0% |
| Maya Joint | 0% |
| Diana Shnaider | 0% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0% |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0% |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0% |
| Elina Svitolina | 0% |
| Tereza Valentova | 0% |
| Donna Vekic | 0% |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0% |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 0% |
| Xiyu Wang | 0% |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 0% |
| Marie Bouzkova | 0% |
| Alexandra Eala | 0% |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | 0% |
| Elise Mertens | 0% |
| Sofia Kenin | 0% |
| Katie Boulter | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Maja Chwalinska | 0% |
| Sara Bejlek | 0% |
| Ann Li | 0% |
| Leylah Fernandez | 0% |
| Maria Sakkari | 0% |
| Diane Parry | 0% |
| Nadia Podoroska | 0% |
| Janice Tjen | 0% |
| Cristina Bucsa | 0% |
| Magdalena Frech | 0% |
| Katerina Siniakova | 0% |
| Daria Snigur | 0% |
| Lilli Tagger | 0% |
| Zeynep Sonmez | 0% |
| Peyton Stearns | 0% |
| Viktorija Golubic | 0% |
| Camila Osorio | 0% |
| Caty McNally | 0% |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 0% |
| Magda Linette | 0% |
| Sloane Stephens | 0% |
| Taylor Townsend | 0% |
Market context
2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis). The market is currently pricing the outcome at 23% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-13T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
This page compares 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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