Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Lucas Jumalon | 35% |
| Rami Hammoud | 14% |
| Michael Gagliano | 14% |
| Greg Mueller | 12% |
| Jamie Shaevel | 10% |
| Mario Boos | 8% |
| Han Feng | 6% |
| Lauri Saaskilahti | 5% |
| Evagoras Evagorou | 4% |
Market context
The 2026 WSOP Main Event is down to a nine-player final table, and the current 35% price on Lucas Jumalon tracks the live chip lead rather than a settled outcome. PokerNews reported that the market had only just over $10,000 in trading volume when the final table picture emerged, so depth is still thin enough that fresh deposits and on-ramp friction can matter more than in larger, more liquid sports books[1].
For framing, this kind of market usually becomes more efficient once final-table payouts and broadcasting schedules are fixed, because poker traders can react quickly to chip-count updates and elimination order. Comparable 2026 coverage has kept Jumalon in the mid-30s, with Rami Hammoud and Michael Gagliano next in line, which suggests the book is still pricing stack position heavily rather than only lifetime reputation[1][3]. In a field this small, a few large entries funded through card rails, SEPA transfers, Klarna-linked checkout, or USDC can move the implied price faster than the underlying odds of any one player would justify.
Catalysts to watch are procedural rather than promotional: final-table start times, any WSOP schedule slips, and confirmation that the event finishes before the August 19 deadline in the market rules. ESPN and PokerNews both noted the final table was set with Jumalon holding a major chip lead, so any reshuffle in counts before cards are in the air could shift the market again[13][15]. If the tournament is delayed, cancelled, or fails to produce a winner by the cutoff, the contract resolves to Other, which makes timing risk just as important as who is leading in chips.
Methodology
This page compares WSOP Main Event Winner with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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