Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
49% | 51% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
49% | 51% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49% |
| J.D. Vance | 43% |
| Marco Rubio | 28% |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% |
| Donald Trump | 2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 2% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 1% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1% |
| Greg Abbott | 1% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% |
| Brian Kemp | 1% |
| Byron Donalds | 1% |
| Ted Cruz | 1% |
| Elon Musk | 1% |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% |
| Rand Paul | 1% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1% |
| Thomas Massie | 1% |
| Nikki Haley | 0% |
| Elise Stefanik | 0% |
| Josh Hawley | 0% |
| Matt Gaetz | 0% |
| Katie Britt | 0% |
| John Thune | 0% |
| Kristi Noem | 0% |
| Mike Pence | 0% |
| Tom Brady | 0% |
| Steve Bannon | 0% |
| Erika Kirk | 0% |
| Kim Kardashian | 0% |
| Eric Trump | 0% |
| Joe Kent | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% |
| Candace Owens | 0% |
| Tim Scott | 0% |
| Mike Johnson | 0% |
| Doug Burgum | 0% |
| Tom Cotton | 0% |
| John N. Kennedy | 0% |
| Rick Scott | 0% |
| Person U | 0% |
| Person V | 0% |
| Person W | 0% |
| Person X | 0% |
| Person Y | 0% |
| Person Z | 0% |
| Person AA | 0% |
| Person AB | 0% |
| Person AC | 0% |
| Person AD | 0% |
| Person AE | 0% |
| Person AF | 0% |
| Person AG | 0% |
| Person AH | 0% |
| Person AI | 0% |
| Person AJ | 0% |
| Person AK | 0% |
| Person AL | 0% |
| Person AM | 0% |
| Person AN | 0% |
| Person AO | 0% |
| Person AP | 0% |
| Person AQ | 0% |
| Person AR | 0% |
| Person AS | 0% |
| Person AT | 0% |
| Person AU | 0% |
| Person AV | 0% |
| Person AW | 0% |
| Person AX | 0% |
| Person AY | 0% |
| Person AZ | 0% |
| Person BA | 0% |
| Person BB | 0% |
| Person BC | 0% |
| Person BD | 0% |
| Person BE | 0% |
| Person BF | 0% |
| Person BG | 0% |
| Person BH | 0% |
| Person BI | 0% |
| Person BJ | 0% |
| Person BK | 0% |
| Person BL | 0% |
| Person BM | 0% |
| Person BN | 0% |
| Person BO | 0% |
| Person BP | 0% |
| Person BQ | 0% |
| Person BR | 0% |
| Person BS | 0% |
| Person BT | 0% |
| Person BU | 0% |
| Person BV | 0% |
| Person BW | 0% |
| Person BX | 0% |
| Person BY | 0% |
| Person BZ | 0% |
| Person CA | 0% |
| Person CB | 0% |
| Person CC | 0% |
| Person CD | 0% |
| Person CE | 0% |
| Person CF | 0% |
| Person CG | 0% |
| Person CH | 0% |
| Person CI | 0% |
| Person CJ | 0% |
| Person CK | 0% |
| Person CL | 0% |
| Person CM | 0% |
| Person CN | 0% |
| Person CO | 0% |
| Person CP | 0% |
| Person CQ | 0% |
| Person CR | 0% |
| Person CS | 0% |
| Person CT | 0% |
| Person CU | 0% |
| Person CV | 0% |
| Person CW | 0% |
| Person CX | 0% |
| Person CY | 0% |
| Person CZ | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 49% YES. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …
Methodology
This page compares Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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