Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome sits at 0% YES, yet market frontrunners indicate a 66% chance of 12°C and a 23% chance of 13°C, suggesting the market expects cool winter conditions rather than extreme heat[1]. Historical data frames this expectation: Wellington’s all-time maximum reached 30.3°C during a rare heatwave, but July is typically the coldest month, with daily highs rarely exceeding 15°C in the airport zone[2][4]. The 0% probability likely reflects a misunderstanding of settlement mechanics or a misreading of the temperature range brackets, as winter highs in Wellington consistently fall within the 8–14°C band.

Traders should monitor the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) for any unusual heatwave announcements or southerly wind shifts that could spike temperatures unexpectedly[2]. Dependencies include the Wunderground settlement source, which records the highest temperature for all times on 1 July, and the gear icon setting for Celsius conversion, which must be verified to avoid Fahrenheit misinterpretation[1]. Recent news from NIWA confirms Wellington’s vulnerability to sudden heat spikes, though such events are statistically rare in July[2]. The market’s traction ties directly to funding flows: as deposit fees via Klarna and withdrawal rails like SEPA improve, book depth increases, allowing tighter spreads on temperature ranges. USDC on-ramps further drive liquidity, making the 12°C outcome more probable as capital concentrates on the most likely winter high.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Wellington on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.