Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
16% | 84% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
16% | 84% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mexico 1 - 0 Ecuador | 16% |
| Mexico 0 - 0 Ecuador | 14% |
| Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador | 14% |
| Mexico 0 - 1 Ecuador | 11% |
| Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador | 9% |
| Mexico 2 - 1 Ecuador | 8% |
| Mexico 1 - 2 Ecuador | 5% |
| Any Other Score | 4% |
| Mexico 3 - 1 Ecuador | 3% |
| Mexico 0 - 2 Ecuador | 3% |
| Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador | 3% |
| Mexico 2 - 2 Ecuador | 3% |
| Mexico 2 - 3 Ecuador | 1% |
| Mexico 3 - 2 Ecuador | 1% |
| Mexico 0 - 3 Ecuador | 1% |
| Mexico 1 - 3 Ecuador | 1% |
| Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador | 0% |
Market context
Mexico vs. Ecuador - Exact Score — current market-implied probability: 16%. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Mexico vs. Ecuador match originally …
Methodology
This page compares Mexico vs. Ecuador - Exact Score with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
Trade Mexico vs. Ecuador - Exact Score on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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