Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current market data shows a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome, implying traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specified range. This zero valuation aligns with historical patterns where early July in Tokyo often begins with cooler, rainier conditions before the intense heat of mid-month sets in. Recent records show Japan experienced its hottest July ever last year, with temperatures nearly 3°C above average, yet Haneda specifically saw light rain and temperatures around 23°C on comparable dates, suggesting early July volatility rather than consistent extremes[5][6].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily heat advisories and the incoming typhoon forecast for the Pacific, as these directly influence local temperature spikes. A recent report from the JMA confirmed record-breaking heat across the country, but Haneda’s coastal location typically buffers extreme highs compared to inland Tokyo stations[6]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning any late-morning cloud cover or rain could suppress the peak temperature below the threshold. Funding flows into this market remain thin, likely due to on-ramp friction for users depositing via Klarna or SEPA, which limits book depth despite the clear weather catalyst. Withdrawal rails using USDC are functional but face delays that deter high-frequency traders from entering positions before the event resolves.

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Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.