Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Spain O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| Portugal O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 55% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Spain O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Team to Advance | 34% |
| O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Portugal O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| Spain (-1.5) | 27% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 27% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 24% |
| Spain O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Spain (-2.5) | 12% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Portugal O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Portugal (-1.5) | 8% |
| Spain (-4.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Spain (-3.5) | 4% |
| Portugal (-2.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Portugal (-3.5) | 1% |
| Spain (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Portugal (-4.5) | 0% |
| Portugal (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 94%. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Portugal vs. Spain - More Markets on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →