Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's late May weather typically sits in the early monsoon transition period, with daytime highs ranging between 28–32°C as the city shifts from spring into summer. The settlement window closes at midday on 27 May 2026, meaning the market resolves based on the peak temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station before noon. Historical May data from Wunderground shows Shenzhen rarely exceeds 33°C in the first half of the month, though occasional heat spikes do occur when high-pressure systems stall over southern China.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's upper temperature bands to remain unmatched, likely reflecting baseline seasonal patterns rather than any specific weather forecast signal. Comparable May 26th data from prior years shows settlement clusters around 29–31°C, with only sporadic instances breaking into the 32–34°C range. Since Wunderground's historical records provide the sole resolution source, traders should cross-reference airport-specific data rather than city-centre readings, which often run 1–2°C warmer.

Book depth on this market depends partly on deposit accessibility; traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers into USDC stablecoins face variable settlement times that may affect position sizing around the resolution window. Recent volatility in Asian weather forecasting (May 2025 saw unexpected heat domes across the region) suggests monitoring China Meteorological Administration updates in the weeks prior. The settlement cutoff at 12:00 UTC effectively captures morning and early afternoon temperatures, making afternoon thunderstorms—common in late May—irrelevant to final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.