Iran ceasefire continues through?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran have maintained an undeclared ceasefire following escalations in early 2024, with neither side conducting direct kinetic military operations on Iranian territory since April. This market tests whether that restraint holds through a specified date, with resolution hinging on official US government confirmation or overwhelming credible reporting of American strikes inside Iran's borders. The resolution window is tight: any qualifying action must be publicly confirmed within one calendar day of occurrence.

Historical precedent suggests such ceasefires are fragile but durable when both parties face domestic constraints. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action created a seven-year period of reduced direct confrontation despite persistent proxy conflicts. The January 2020 cycle—Iranian ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq followed by US restraint—lasted months before tensions resurged. Current probability at 100% reflects market participants' assessment that neither side has immediate incentive to breach the line, though this consensus is vulnerable to sudden geopolitical shifts or miscalculation.

Traders should monitor statements from the US State Department and Pentagon regarding Iranian nuclear activity, regional proxy movements, and any Israeli military actions that might provoke Iranian retaliation. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates ongoing diplomatic back-channels, though these remain fragile. Deposit and withdrawal mechanics matter here: markets with high conviction often see capital constraints limit depth, so traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers should verify settlement timelines before committing positions. The 100% reading suggests limited liquidity on the "No" side, making entry friction significant for contrarian positions.

Methodology

We track Iran ceasefire continues through? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.