Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather in late May typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the city transitions toward summer. Historical data from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station shows May temperatures frequently peak between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the settlement mechanics, sceptical of the data source reliability, or waiting for clearer atmospheric signals before committing capital. Given the market's May 2026 window, current positioning reflects minimal conviction rather than a genuine forecast that temperatures will fall outside measurable ranges.

Seasonal patterns favour mid-to-high 20s as a baseline, though East Asian subtropical systems can push readings sharply upward. The China Meteorological Administration publishes daily forecasts roughly ten days in advance; traders monitoring those updates will gain early signals on whether monsoon activity or high-pressure systems dominate the settlement date. Wunderground's historical archive has proven reliable for Shanghai's airport station, though occasional sensor maintenance or data gaps have occurred during extreme weather events.

Liquidity constraints on niche weather markets often reflect deposit friction rather than forecast disagreement. Traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers face multi-day settlement windows that can lock capital before positions mature. USDC on-ramps bypass those delays but require existing stablecoin holdings. Until book depth improves—typically driven by lower withdrawal fees or faster fiat rails—even well-informed traders may avoid small stakes, leaving the market thinly priced and vulnerable to late-stage information shocks.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.