Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s airport temperature is usually in the **mid-20s to low-30s Celsius** in June, with WeatherSpark putting June daily highs at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on an upward path from about **77°F to 83°F** across the month, and AccuWeather showing June 2026 daily highs at the airport in the **76°F to 93°F** range. That makes this a weather market with a wide but still seasonal band: the key question is not whether it will be warm, but whether the day’s peak stays near the lower end of the forecast envelope or pushes into the upper 20s and low 30s Celsius.[1][2][5]

For framing, the current **0% YES** crowd price suggests either very thin early liquidity or a market that has not yet attracted deposit flow, rather than a settled view on the weather itself. On prediction markets, depth often follows the easiest funding rails: if users can add funds quickly through **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC**, the book tends to tighten faster than when deposits and withdrawals are slower or more fragmented. For a temperature event like this, the comparable cases are other Shanghai June markets, where the practical issue is usually how much fresh capital arrives after the latest forecast update rather than the long-run climate average.[1][3][6]

Traders should watch for the main forecast refreshes from the evening and overnight model runs, plus any local weather alerts that would signal cloud cover, rainfall, or a heat surge at Shanghai Pudong International Airport before the settlement cut-off. A late change in the forecast range matters because the market resolves to the **highest temperature recorded on the day**, not the average, so a brief warm window can still lift the final reading. In markets with payment friction, the decisive move is often not the first opinion, but the point at which new deposits come in and the available depth starts to reflect the updated forecast.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.