Colombia Presidential Election

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold a presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff on 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The settlement window closes on 21 June 2026 at 14:00 UTC, meaning the market resolves once official results are certified or by 31 December 2026 if the outcome remains unclear. Current crowd probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme uncertainty across all candidates or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Colombian presidential elections typically feature fragmented fields with multiple viable candidates, making first-round majorities uncommon. The 2022 election saw leftist Gustavo Petro win a runoff with 50.4% after polling below 40% in early surveys, demonstrating how volatile these contests can be. Comparable Latin American markets show that funding depth often correlates with payment accessibility—SEPA transfers and Klarna deposits tend to drive sustained trader participation in European-facing books, whilst USDC on-ramps attract institutional flow during high-conviction periods.

Key catalysts include candidate registration deadlines (typically 60 days before the election), polling releases from firms like Invamer and CNC, and any major policy announcements or scandals affecting frontrunners. The Colombian electoral authority (CNE) publishes preliminary results within days of voting, though official certification can take weeks. Traders should monitor whether deposit friction—particularly for UK and EU participants using Klarna or SEPA rails—affects book depth as the election approaches, since shallow liquidity can widen spreads and delay settlement confirmation even after results are announced.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.