Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 28 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the standard meteorological station for the region. Late May in Seoul typically falls within the transition to early summer, with daytime highs ranging between 24–28°C, though anomalous heat events have pushed readings above 30°C in recent years. The settlement will depend on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific date, with resolution occurring at midday UTC on the settlement window close.

Historical May temperatures in Seoul show considerable year-to-year variation. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or have not yet committed capital to this market—a common pattern for weather contracts in the early stages of book formation. May 2023 saw Seoul reach 28.5°C, whilst May 2024 peaked at 26.1°C. Comparable late-spring markets typically attract deeper liquidity once deposit rails activate; traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers often increase positioning once payment friction drops below psychological thresholds.

Catalysts for this market centre on seasonal weather pattern announcements from Korea Meteorological Administration, typically issued 10–14 days before the target date. El Niño or La Niña conditions in early 2026 will influence May's thermal profile. Traders should monitor spring temperature trends through April and early May; sustained warmth in the preceding weeks correlates with higher May maxima. Book depth will likely increase as the settlement window approaches and traders can execute deposits without extended processing delays.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.