Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, traders are betting on whether Incheon International Airport will record a peak temperature in Seoul that lands within a specific Celsius range, with the crowd currently implying only a 21% chance of a “YES” outcome. This hinges on real-world heat conditions in the capital region, where June typically sees daily highs rising from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F [1]. The market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Airport, sourced from Wunderground, and closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date.

Historically, Seoul has faced extreme June heat, including a record 39.6°C in 2018 that shattered its prior high of 38.4°C [3][7]. More recently, in June 2025, South Korea recorded its hottest June day since 1904, with 30 cities hitting record-breaking temperatures, including 25.8°C on 15 June 2024 [5]. These cases suggest that while extreme heat is possible, the current 21% probability may reflect caution about whether Incheon—slightly cooler than central Seoul—will match capital-level peaks.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for the Seoul-Incheon corridor, particularly any announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding heatwaves or monsoon delays. A recent report noted South Korea’s all-time heat record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, Gangwon, in 2025, underscoring the volatility of regional summer temperatures [2]. Any shift in funding flows into this book—driven by deposit ease via Klarna, SEPA, or USDC rails—could signal growing confidence in a heat spike, directly impacting book depth and implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).