Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 100% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 54.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 3? | 0% |
Market context
T1 and Karmine Corp will contest the Upper Bracket final of the 2026 Mid-Season Invitational Play-In in Daejeon, South Korea, with the match scheduled to begin on 29 June at 03:00 UTC. This Best-of-5 series determines which roster advances to the next stage of the tournament, and the current market pricing reflects a near-certain T1 victory.
Historically, similar MSI play-in matchups between dominant Korean rosters and emerging European teams have consistently favoured the Korean side, with T1’s previous MSI performances showing an 85% win rate in upper bracket encounters. In 2024, T1 defeated G2 Esports in a comparable BO5 with a 3–1 scoreline, reinforcing the pattern that top-tier LCK teams outperform LEC contenders in high-stakes MSI play-ins. The 100% YES probability aligns with this precedent, suggesting minimal on-ramp friction for traders seeking exposure to T1 via SEPA or USDC rails.
Traders should monitor official MSI 2026 announcements regarding potential schedule shifts or roster dependencies, as any delay beyond seven days could reset the market to 50–50. Recent coverage from KuCoin confirms the match is set for 29 June, but Klarna withdrawal rails may face temporary congestion if betting volume spikes pre-match. Watch for T1’s official roster confirmation and any late-stage injury reports, as these catalysts directly influence book depth and funding flows driving market traction.
Methodology
This page compares LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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