Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The key real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station** on 22 June, which resolves this market. Seoul-area June highs are usually in the upper 20s Celsius, and Polymarket’s own pricing is already clustered around **25–26°C**, with **26°C** currently the frontrunner at 54% and 25°C next at 17%[1][2].

That probability profile is consistent with how late-June temperature markets often trade: the book tends to concentrate around the climatological centre, while tail outcomes are thin unless there is a clear heat signal. Seoul has a long June warming trend, with average daily highs rising through the month, but the range remains broad enough that one or two degrees can shift the winning bucket[2]. Recent Korean summer extremes also matter for context: South Korea set a new all-time heat record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon, and 2025 was reported as the country’s hottest summer on record, which keeps upside heat scenarios in play even when the base rate favours the mid-20s[3][6][8].

For traders, the main catalysts are funding and settlement friction rather than headline weather drama. On a market like this, depth often depends on how easily users can move money in and out: card-style on-ramp flows such as Klarna, bank transfer rails such as SEPA, and faster settlement via USDC can all affect how quickly liquidity arrives around a forecast. The weather itself will be driven by the synoptic pattern over the Korean Peninsula, so the key watchpoints are local forecast updates, any official heat advisories, and the actual station reading that Wunderground publishes for Incheon International Airport on the day[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.