Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 1 July 2026 at Incheon International Airport, the official proxy for Seoul’s summer heat. This market resolves to the Celsius range containing that peak, with settlement finalising at noon UTC on 1 July 2026. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome, historical data suggests Seoul routinely hits 27°C in July, with afternoons often warmer due to rising humidity [1]. The all-time record for Seoul is 39.6°C, set on 1 August, but early July has also seen extremes: 37.8°C was recorded on 8 July, the highest ever for that period in 117 years of records [4][8].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts for Seoul in late June and early July, as AccuWeather predicts July 2026 highs between 81°F and 89°F (27°C–32°C), with an average high of 85°F (29°C) [5]. A key catalyst is the release of Wunderground’s official daily data for Incheon on 2 July, which will confirm the settlement value [2]. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı highlights that South Korea has already recorded its highest-ever July temperatures, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme heat this season [8]. Funding flows into this market remain tied to deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails; as on-ramp fees ease, book depth is expected to expand, reflecting greater trader confidence in the heat trajectory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.