Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Spain O/U 0.5 | 89% |
| Team to Advance | 87% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Spain O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 64% |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Spain (-1.5) | 48% |
| Austria O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score | 41% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Spain O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 30% |
| O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 26% |
| Spain (-2.5) | 26% |
| Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 21% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 15% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Austria O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Spain (-3.5) | 12% |
| Austria 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Spain (-5.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Spain (-4.5) | 4% |
| Austria O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| Austria (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Austria (-2.5) | 1% |
| Austria (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Austria (-4.5) | 0% |
| Austria (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, spain vs. austria - more markets stands at 94% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Spain vs. Austria - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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