Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 96% |
| France O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Team to Advance | 89% |
| O/U 1.5 | 86% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| France O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| France 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| France (-1.5) | 56% |
| Sweden O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 50% |
| France O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 3.5 | 43% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| France (-2.5) | 34% |
| France 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| France (-3.5) | 17% |
| Sweden O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| Sweden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| France (-4.5) | 9% |
| France (-5.5) | 6% |
| O/U 6.5 | 6% |
| Sweden O/U 2.5 | 4% |
| Sweden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| Sweden (-1.5) | 2% |
| O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Sweden (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Sweden (-3.5) | 0% |
| Sweden (-4.5) | 0% |
| Sweden (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
France vs. Sweden - More Markets. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 56% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-06-30T21:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
This page compares France vs. Sweden - More Markets with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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