Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Historical data shows San Francisco’s June highs typically range between 62°F and 70°F, with overnight lows rarely dipping below 54°F[2]. Recent observations confirm this pattern: yesterday’s maximum hit 74°F, while earlier in June temperatures hovered near 63°F to 72.5°F[1][8]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome (likely meaning a temperature above a specific threshold) aligns with these norms, as extreme heat above 75°F remains rare in coastal San Francisco during early summer[10].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the KSFO station, as these are the official resolution sources[1][3]. A key catalyst is the upcoming heat advisory schedule from the California Office of Emergency Services, which may signal anomalous warming if issued before 30 June. Recent news from the San Francisco Chronicle noted a sudden 15°F spike in 30 minutes at SFO, reaching 77°F, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift[10]. Market depth on this book is driven by funding flows from Klarna and SEPA deposits; as payment friction lowers, liquidity increases, tightening spreads around the 68–71°F range where 90% of current bets cluster[4]. Withdrawal rails via USDC also influence trader retention, directly impacting book resilience during volatile weather windows.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.