Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the San Francisco International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, determining whether this prediction market resolves to the highest range. The current 6% YES probability implies the crowd expects a notably cool day, well below the typical July high of around 70°F, which rarely exceeds 79°F [1]. Historical data shows that while extreme heatwaves are uncommon in San Francisco, record highs have occurred; for instance, the airport hit 87°F during a Bay Area heatwave, tying a 2013 record [2]. However, July 13 specifically has not seen triple-digit temperatures at KSFO, with the all-time Bay Area record of 116°F occurring in Healdsburg in 1972, far from the coastal airport [3]. The city’s hottest day ever was 106°F on 1 September 2017, suggesting a July 13 spike to extreme levels is statistically improbable [5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly observations for KSFO and any sudden shifts in marine layer coverage, which typically suppresses temperatures. A key catalyst is the absence of a confirmed heatwave forecast for the Bay Area this week, as recent reports indicate no triple-digit temps are expected across the region [3]. The market’s book depth correlates directly with funding flows via Klarna and SEPA on-ramps; friction in depositing or withdrawal rails could dampen liquidity, limiting price discovery. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, traders must watch for real-time Wunderground updates, the official resolution source, as any deviation from the 64–79°F range could trigger a YES outcome [1][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.