Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle this market into one of several temperature bands. The resolution hinges on a single daily maximum reading from Wunderground's historical database, making this a straightforward meteorological outcome with no discretionary interpretation.

Late May in the Paris region typically sees highs between 18–24°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the upper 20s. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 28°C on this date are rare; the station has recorded only a handful of days above 30°C in late May across the past two decades. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest range suggests the crowd expects a below-average or seasonally typical day. Comparable May weather patterns from 2015–2023 indicate that extreme heat (above 32°C) occurs in fewer than 5% of cases, anchoring baseline expectations toward moderate conditions.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly any Atlantic ridge systems or heat advection from southern Europe that could drive anomalous warmth northward. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by late April. Deposit friction remains material for book depth; traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers may face settlement delays that compress the final trading window, whilst USDC on-ramps offer faster liquidity access closer to the 12:00 UTC resolution deadline on 26 May.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.