Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris is in the middle of a heatwave, and the relevant settlement point is the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 22 June. Crowd pricing is clustered around the upper 30s Celsius, with 37°C and 38°C taking almost all the share, which is consistent with a market expecting the day’s peak to land just below or around the threshold where a hotter reading becomes decisive.[1]

That stance fits the June climatology for Paris, where daily highs usually rise through the month and often sit in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, but it is the extreme weather setup that matters here rather than the average. Recent reporting from Reuters said the French weather service was seeing temperatures reaching 35–38°C and warned of record-highs in parts of France, while other coverage said Paris could briefly exceed 40°C during the current spell.[5][7] That means the current 0% yes price is not a temperature forecast in itself so much as a statement that the market has not yet found a path to the exact resolving band.

For a payment-friction-focused crowd, the more important driver of depth is whether traders can fund quickly when the forecast shifts. Klarna on-ramp options, SEPA transfers, and USDC withdrawals matter because weather markets move fastest when a new bulletin, runway observation, or noon-hour update changes the expected daily maximum; any delay between seeing that shift and getting cash or stablecoins onto the book can suppress participation and widen spreads. In practice, traders will be watching the day’s Paris station readings and any short-term updates from meteorological agencies, since a late spike in the afternoon can still move the final band even when the market already looks anchored.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.