Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City's maximum temperature on 30 May 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against historical weather data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full calendar day's peak reading in Fahrenheit. Current market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about late-spring conditions in the New York metropolitan area, where May temperatures typically range between 65°F and 80°F but can exceed 85°F during heat waves.

Historical May weather at LaGuardia shows considerable variance. The station recorded 89°F on 30 May 2019 and 84°F on 30 May 2018, whilst cooler years saw highs near 72°F. This 17-degree spread across recent years illustrates why traders face genuine difficulty calibrating probabilities without seasonal forecasts. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or conviction to establish meaningful odds, a common pattern in weather markets with low deposit friction and SEPA payment rails that reduce entry barriers for European traders unfamiliar with traditional prediction platforms.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts approximately two weeks before settlement, with meaningful refinement arriving five to seven days prior. Traders should monitor late May atmospheric patterns—particularly whether Atlantic ridge systems push warm air into the Northeast or whether Canadian high-pressure systems deliver cooler conditions. Klarna's payment flexibility enables incremental position building as forecasts sharpen, allowing traders to adjust exposure without committing capital upfront and facing withdrawal delays.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.