Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

New York City’s late-June peak temperature at LaGuardia will be driven by how far the afternoon warms before sea-breeze moderation and any cloud cover arrive, with the market settling on the highest reading recorded at KLGA on 21 June. A 0% crowd-implied price leaves the book effectively unpriced, so any tradable depth is likely to reflect the ease or difficulty of getting money on and off the venue rather than a settled weather view.

Recent nearby-date temperature markets on Polymarket have resolved into tight summer bands: the June 16 event finished with 78–79°F as the 100% outcome, while the June 19 event pointed to 82–83°F at 100%, and the June 19 market had already drawn $118.8K in volume. Those examples matter because they show how New York airport temperatures often cluster around a narrow intraday range once the forecast is close to the settlement window, whereas the current market still has room for position-building if funding rails are smooth enough to support it.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the evolving weather forecast for LaGuardia, any NWS climate summary updates, and the final airport observation sequence on the day itself. NWS station data for KLGA shows how quickly hourly temperatures can move through a few degrees in the evening, while Weather Underground is the settlement source, so the last printed daily maximum is what counts.[4][7] On the payment side, books tend to deepen when deposits clear quickly through low-friction methods such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC; where on-ramp delays, fees, or withdrawal rails are cumbersome, participation can stay thinner even if the underlying weather signal is clear.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.