Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an unprecedented heat wave, with LaGuardia Airport recording a record-breaking 104°F on July 3, 2026, shattering a 60-year-old benchmark [3]. This extreme thermal event has pushed midnight temperatures to 94°F, the highest ever observed at the station, indicating a persistent and dangerous heat dome over the region [1][4]. The settlement for the July 12 market hinges on whether this intense pattern sustains or breaks, as the current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects a significant cooling trend before the deadline.

Historical data from the 1966 heat wave, which saw LaGuardia hit 107°F, provides the critical upper bound for traders assessing the likelihood of extreme ranges [9]. While July 2026 forecasts typically cap daily highs around 91°F, the current anomaly has already exceeded these norms by over 10 degrees, framing the current probability as a bet on rapid atmospheric relaxation rather than continued escalation [2]. The divergence between standard seasonal averages and the current record-breaking reality creates a volatile backdrop for evaluating the market's implied odds.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, as any deviation from the current heat trajectory will directly impact settlement outcomes [8]. The persistence of this heat wave, which has already caused 29 fatalities in New Jersey, suggests that withdrawal of the heat dome may be the primary catalyst for price movement [3]. For users on polymarket-klarna.co.uk, the depth of this book correlates with the friction of depositing via Klarna or SEPA; as funding flows ease, liquidity should increase, allowing positions to better reflect the genuine risk of a sustained high-temperature event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).