Highest temperature in Munich on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, Munich Airport will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a figure that settles the prediction market tied to this specific weather event. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range, despite historical July highs in Munich typically reaching between 25°C and 31°C [1][2].

Historical data shows Munich’s July highs rarely exceed 32°C, with the national record for Germany reaching 42.6°C in 2019 during an extreme heatwave [6]. However, typical summer days at Munich Airport average around 28°C, rarely dropping below 23°C or climbing above 32°C [1][3]. The current 0% probability implies the market expects a temperature significantly lower than the bracket’s threshold, possibly influenced by recent forecasts indicating highs of 28°C for the day [5].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the German Weather Service (DWD) and Wunderground’s hourly logs for Munich Airport (EDDM), as these are the official resolution sources [9]. A sudden shift in cloud cover or wind direction could alter the peak temperature within hours, directly impacting settlement. Recent news highlights Germany’s vulnerability to record heat, yet local conditions in Bavaria often moderate extreme spikes [9]. For users on polymarket-klarna.co.uk, deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA may delay entry into late-moving positions, while USDC withdrawals remain the fastest rail for capitalising on intraday temperature swings.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Munich on July 12? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.