Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Los Angeles will record a daytime high temperature at LAX on 26 May 2026, measured and logged by the National Weather Service station there. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data pull for that specific date, which aggregates official readings across all hours. Current crowd positioning at 0% YES suggests either extreme confidence in a particular temperature band or minimal liquidity depth—a common signal when deposit friction or withdrawal rails constrain trader entry.

Historical May temperatures at LAX cluster between 68°F and 82°F, with occasional outliers above 85°F during Santa Ana wind events or early heat waves. The 1998 record high for late May sits at 91°F, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Comparable spring markets on this venue have shown that low initial probability reflects sparse early funding rather than genuine conviction; book depth typically expands once traders can deposit via Klarna or SEPA without friction, shifting implied odds materially within weeks of settlement window opening.

Watch for late-April atmospheric pattern forecasts from NOAA, which typically signal whether a high-pressure ridge will dominate California by late May. Seasonal drought conditions and soil moisture anomalies published by the U.S. Drought Monitor in early May also correlate with temperature extremes. Traders should confirm withdrawal rails—USDC on-chain settlement or Klarna payouts—before committing capital, as liquidity providers often front-run these markets once deposit options widen beyond traditional banking channels.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.