Highest temperature in London on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 May 2026, London City Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature in Celsius. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific location, which captures intraday peaks across all hours. Current crowd pricing reflects deep uncertainty about spring weather patterns eighteen months forward, with zero probability mass assigned to any single temperature band—a typical state for distant weather markets where liquidity clusters only as the event date approaches.

London's May temperatures have historically ranged between 12°C and 28°C, with median highs around 18–20°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or waiting for nearer-term entry points when forecast models gain accuracy. Weather prediction markets typically see order-book depth build within two to four weeks of settlement; before that window, sparse liquidity means wide spreads and minimal trading activity. The Met Office publishes seasonal outlooks quarterly, though May 2026 forecasts won't carry meaningful skill until early 2026.

Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA rails should expect this market to remain thin until April 2026, when numerical weather models begin resolving ensemble uncertainty. The resolution mechanism—direct Wunderground API pulls for London City Airport—eliminates settlement disputes common in other weather markets. Withdrawal friction through traditional banking channels may outweigh potential gains on low-liquidity distant markets; USDC settlement could improve capital efficiency for those holding stablecoins already.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.