Highest temperature in London on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant event is the day’s **highest recorded temperature at London City Airport**, which resolves from the Wunderground history page rather than a forecast headline. With the current crowd price at **0% YES**, the book is effectively saying the listed range is already viewed as all but ruled out, so any late movement would have to come from an unexpectedly hot reading or a data-release quirk rather than a routine forecast drift.

Historically, late-June London temperature markets tend to be driven by whether the airport site gets into the high-20s Celsius, because London City Airport often runs a little differently from broader city averages and can print a sharper daytime maximum. Comparable Polymarket temperature events around London have recently clustered expectations in the **28–30°C** area, with the market for 22 June showing **28°C** and **29°C** as the leading outcomes, which helps explain why a zero-price position is usually read as a strong statement about the likely terminal print rather than a neutral starting point.[1] The settlement rule also matters: the market waits for the day’s final data point on the source page, so the trade is about the maximum value recorded, not the afternoon forecast alone.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **Met Office** and airport-specific hourly updates, plus any change in how the airport station actually reports the top reading into Wunderground.[5][3] Funding-side frictions matter here as much as weather: if deposits arrive fastest through **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC**, that can bring in fresh liquidity quickly, while slower on-ramp or withdrawal rails can leave depth thin and move the price more violently on small orders. That means the market can stay pinned near zero until a clear heat signal or a larger flow of new balances changes the book.[5][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.