Highest temperature in London on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, London City Airport will record its peak temperature for the day, a real-world event that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome above 30°C. This stark consensus ignores recent historical precedents and live forecasts suggesting significantly warmer conditions. For instance, the highest temperature ever recorded in London was 40.2°C on 19 July 2022 at Heathrow, while current Met Office data for London City Airport predicts a maximum of 32°C today, with temperatures rising into heatwave territory over the next few days [3][6].

Traders should monitor the incoming heatwave and storm forecast for 5–7 July, which indicates temperatures climbing to 31°C on Friday and 32°C by midday on Saturday, alongside high UV levels and limited overnight cooling [4]. The market’s thin volume and sensitivity to National Weather Prediction model updates mean this contract could reprice rapidly as new data arrives [10]. Crucially, the depth of this book is driven by funding flows; users depositing via Klarna or SEPA to access these rails are the primary source of liquidity, and their willingness to pay fees for on-ramp access directly correlates with the market’s ability to absorb large positions on higher temperature bands.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in London on July 6? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.