Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 27 May 2026 will be recorded by the Observatory and published in its official Daily Extract once the month closes. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, but final resolution depends on the Observatory releasing verified data, which typically occurs within days of month-end. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should account for standard clearing delays; withdrawal of winnings through the same rails may take 2–3 business days post-resolution.

May in Hong Kong sits at the cusp of pre-monsoon conditions, with daily maxima typically ranging between 29 and 33 degrees Celsius. Historical Observatory records show that 27 May has seen highs as low as 27.5°C and as high as 34.2°C over the past two decades, reflecting the month's volatility as subtropical high-pressure systems compete with early tropical moisture. The current 0% implied probability on the highest temperature bracket suggests either extremely tight liquidity or a market structure where traders have not yet deposited sufficient capital to back outlier outcomes; book depth often correlates directly with payment-rail accessibility, and USDC on-ramp availability can shift probability distributions once settlement certainty improves.

The key dependency is the Observatory's publication schedule and any tropical cyclone activity in late May 2026. The Hong Kong Meteorological Society publishes seasonal outlooks in April; traders should monitor those forecasts and any alerts from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in New Delhi. Deposit friction—particularly for non-EU traders using SEPA—may suppress participation in niche weather markets until alternative funding methods expand the addressable trader base.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.