Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 22 June will be set by the Observatory’s daily maximum reading, and the question is whether the city reaches a warm enough afternoon peak to land in the winning Celsius band. The crowd’s 0% YES implies the market is pricing in an outcome below the threshold or simply very limited liquidity rather than a strong meteorological view, which is common in small weather contracts where funding and onboarding friction matter as much as the forecast.

The broader frame is still heat-biased. The Hong Kong Observatory said June–August 2026 temperatures are expected to be above normal, with June–August temperature projected above-normal in its seasonal forecast, and its annual outlook also flagged 2026 as a warm year with a high chance of finishing in the city’s warmest top ten.[1][9] Comparable recent heat readings show how quickly this market can move if a hot spell arrives: Hong Kong recorded its hottest day of the year so far at 34.6°C in June 2026, and 2025 included a June absolute maximum of 35.6°C.[6][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning and midday forecast updates from the Hong Kong Observatory, any heat warnings, and whether cloud, rain, or onshore flow suppresses the afternoon maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. In practice, book depth will depend on deposits clearing fast enough to catch those updates: payment routes with lower friction, such as SEPA or USDC, can support quicker positioning than slower card-based ramps, while Klarna-linked funding can widen participation if it remains available in the jurisdiction and is accepted by the venue.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.