Wimbledon ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Bublik

Platform comparison

Market context

Kyrian Jacquet, a qualifier, faces world No. 10 Alexander Bublik in the second round of Wimbledon ATP on 2 July 2026, with the match scheduled to begin at 10:00 UTC in London. Bublik dominated his first round with 28 aces, while Jacquet holds just nine career grass wins, creating a stark contrast in surface experience that underpins the market’s current 0% probability for Jacquet to advance [1][4].

Historically, when a qualifier with minimal grass pedigree meets a top-15 player who has already showcased elite serving on the same surface, the underdog’s win probability rarely exceeds 20%, mirroring pre-tournament models that assigned Jacquet only a 21% chance of victory [2]. Comparable Wimbledon second-round matches from 2024 and 2025 saw similar qualifiers lose within 60 minutes, reinforcing the credibility of the near-zero crowd-implied probability for Jacquet [2].

Traders should monitor Bublik’s serve consistency and any weather delays, as rain could extend the match beyond the seven-day settlement window, triggering a 50-50 resolution. Recent analysis from Tennis.com confirms Bublik’s projected 75% win likelihood, making his serve efficiency the primary catalyst for market movement [1]. Any announcement regarding Jacquet’s fitness or a change in court conditions would also shift book depth, especially as funding flows from Klarna and SEPA deposits continue to drive liquidity in this market [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Wimbledon ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Alexander Bublik with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).