Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Andrey Rublev, ranked in the world's top 10, faces Argentine qualifier Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the opening round of Roland Garros on 27 May 2026. Rublev has contested multiple Grand Slam main draws and reached the quarter-finals at Roland Garros in 2023; Carabelli, a lower-ranked player, would need to upset a significantly more experienced opponent to advance. The 0% implied probability reflects the substantial gap in seeding and career trajectory, though first-round upsets at clay majors remain statistically possible.

Historical context shows that unranked or low-ranked qualifiers win roughly 8–12% of first-round matches against top-20 seeds at Roland Garros. Rublev's clay-court record is solid but not dominant; he has lost to unseeded opponents at majors before, particularly when facing left-handed players or those with unconventional styles. Carabelli's path to the main draw via qualifying suggests baseline competence, yet the probability assigned here aligns with standard models for such matchups.

Traders should monitor Rublev's fitness status in the week leading to the match, as any injury announcement would shift the book materially. Court assignments and weather conditions—particularly wind, which affects clay play—can favour aggressive baseline players like Carabelli. Settlement occurs by 3 June; delays beyond that trigger a 50-50 resolution. Liquidity on this market will depend on deposit flows through Klarna and SEPA rails, which typically peak 48 hours before major tournament fixtures as European traders fund accounts.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.