Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| O/U 26.5 | 98% |
| O/U 30.5 | 97% |
| Bills O/U 10.5 | 97% |
| O/U 32.5 | 96% |
| O/U 28.5 | 96% |
| Lions O/U 10.5 | 95% |
| O/U 34.5 | 94% |
| O/U 36.5 | 93% |
| Bills 1H O/U 6.5 | 93% |
| O/U 38.5 | 91% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 91% |
| Lions O/U 12.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 91% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 90% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 90% |
| Lions O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| Bills O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 88% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| Lions O/U 16.5 | 87% |
| O/U 40.5 | 86% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 86% |
| Bills O/U 20.5 | 86% |
| O/U 42.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 84% |
| Lions 1H O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 44.5 | 81% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 81% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| Bills O/U 23.5 | 79% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 74% |
| O/U 46.5 | 73% |
| Lions O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 73% |
| O/U 48.5 | 69% |
| Bills O/U 26.5 | 69% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| Spread -1.5 | 67% |
| O/U 49.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 67% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 67% |
| Lions O/U 20.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 66% |
| Spread -2.5 | 65% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 65% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| O/U 50.5 | 63% |
| Bills 1H O/U 13.5 | 63% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 62% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 62% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 61% |
| Bills O/U 27.5 | 61% |
| Lions Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 61% |
| O/U 51.5 | 60% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 58% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 58% |
| O/U 52.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 56% |
| Lions O/U 23.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Bills Total Touchdowns: O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| Bills 1H O/U 17.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Bills O/U 30.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 52% |
| O/U 54.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| Bills 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Lions 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Lions 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Bills 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 50% |
| Lions Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Lions vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Lions 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 7-12 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 13-18 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Lions 1H O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| O/U 56.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Bills 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| 2H Moneyline | 43% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Lions O/U 26.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 41% |
| Lions 1H O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 41% |
| O/U 58.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| O/U 60.5 | 36% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Spread -10.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Lions O/U 27.5 | 32% |
| Bills O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Lions vs. Bills | 31% |
| Bills 1H O/U 19.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 19-24 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| O/U 62.5 | 28% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Lions 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Bills 1H O/U 20.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 26% |
| Lions O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| O/U 64.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| O/U 66.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Lions O/U 34.5 | 20% |
| Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 1-6 | 16% |
| O/U 68.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Lions 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 13% |
| O/U 70.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Lions 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 72.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Exact Margin: Lions by 25+ | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Market context
Lions vs. Bills. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 33% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-18T00:15:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $7.7M.
Methodology
This page compares Lions vs. Bills with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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Trade Lions vs. Bills on Polymarket Klarna UK
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