Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Extra Innings | 1% |
| O/U 19.5 | 1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| O/U 14.5 | 0% |
| O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| O/U 17.5 | 0% |
| O/U 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Pittsburgh Pirates face the New York Yankees tonight at 7:05PM ET in a regular-season MLB clash where the Pirates hold a 30% crowd-implied chance of victory. The Pirates currently sit at 52–48, matching the Guardians in wins, while the Yankees remain a formidable opponent with deep historical dominance over Pittsburgh, including a 4–0 sweep in the 1927 World Series [1][2]. This long-standing asymmetry frames the current 30% probability as a reflection of the Pirates’ underdog status rather than a sudden shift in team form.
Traders should monitor late-inning pitching announcements and any weather-related delays, as postponed games keep the market open until completion, while cancellations or ties trigger a 50–50 resolution. Recent MLB scheduling updates confirm no make-up games for fully cancelled fixtures, meaning liquidity could thin if uncertainty rises around the 23:05Z settlement window. A key catalyst is the starting pitcher lineup, which often shifts odds within hours of game time.
The market’s book depth correlates directly with funding flows through Klarna and SEPA on-ramps, where lower deposit friction attracts more retail capital. As USDC withdrawals remain seamless, traders with stablecoin access can react faster to lineup changes, tightening the spread around the 30% threshold. This interplay between payment rails and market liquidity explains why the Pirates’ odds remain stable despite their mid-table record.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $920K.
Methodology
This page compares Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →