Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 86% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 74% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 62% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 38% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 35% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 29% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 26% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 19% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 18% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 17% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 21% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-06-29T17:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
This page compares Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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