Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 58% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 57% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Patrick Pentz: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Unai Simón: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Unai Simón: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ goals | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 5+ shots | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ assists | 48% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Patrick Pentz: 5+ saves | 46% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Patrick Pentz: 2+ saves | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 43% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots on target | 41% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 39% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 36% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Unai Simón: 2+ saves | 34% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 28% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 25% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 24% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 24% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 24% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 20% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ shots | 15% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Konrad Laimer: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots on target | 11% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Rodri: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Romano Schmid: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 7% |
| Pedri: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Rodri: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Romano Schmid: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Konrad Laimer: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ shots | 4% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Rodri: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Paul Wanner: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ shots | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rodri: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Paul Wanner: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Romano Schmid: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Nico Williams: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Marko Arnautovic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Marcel Sabitzer: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Pedro Porro: 4+ goals + assists | 1% |
| Rodri: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 96% YES probability for Spain vs. Austria - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Spain and Austria, scheduled for July 2 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page compares Spain vs. Austria - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
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Trade Spain vs. Austria - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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