Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 95% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 87% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 68% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 64% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 58% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 55% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 54% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 54% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 53% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 36% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 15% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
On 1 July 2026 at 4:00 PM ET, Belgium and Senegal face in a pivotal FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match, with the settlement window closing at 20:00 UTC the same day. The market currently implies a 12% probability for a specific player prop outcome, reflecting cautious sentiment despite Belgium’s group-stage dominance and Senegal’s compact counter-attacking setup.
Historically, similar knockout-stage player props in World Cup matches have shown that high-profile attackers like Romelu Lukaku—favored across anytime goalscorer (+155) and first goalscorer (+480) markets—often drive book depth when liquidity flows align with payment friction. Comparable cases from the 2022 and 2018 tournaments reveal that props tied to top scorers in open, goals-both-ways affairs (as FanDuel predicts here with Both Teams to Score favoured at -156) tend to attract deeper on-ramp funding, especially when SEPA, Klarna, or USDC rails reduce deposit delays[1][2].
Traders should monitor pre-match announcements on Lukaku’s fitness, Senegal’s defensive line adjustments, and any late shifts in total goals odds (currently set at 2.5). Recent analysis from Action Network confirms Both Teams to Score as the best bet, suggesting a 1–1 or 2–1 outcome is likely, which could catalyse prop traction if funding via fast rails accelerates before kick-off[2]. Yahoo Sports also notes Belgium’s short price may be unjustified against Senegal’s resilience, adding volatility to player prop pricing[8].
Methodology
This page compares Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
Trade Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props on Polymarket Klarna UK
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