Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would have to resign, be permanently removed, or otherwise stop serving as president before 31 August 2026 for this market to pay out **Yes**; a public announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline would settle it immediately, even if the effective departure date came later.[1] With the crowd-implied chance at **1%**, the book is pricing an extremely low probability of an abrupt exit rather than a normal political setback.[1]

That kind of pricing is consistent with how resignation markets usually behave: they stay pinned to the low single digits until there is a concrete, official trigger, because impeachment talk, cabinet turnover, or temporary transfer of power do not meet the settlement rules.[1][4] Comparable Trump departure markets on other venues have also sat well below even-money levels, with one longer-dated contract around the end of 2026 trading in the high single digits, which suggests the August deadline is being treated as a much tighter, less likely event window.[3][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are any formal White House announcement, a direct statement from Trump, or a legal/political development that points to permanent removal rather than a temporary handover.[1][4] The next layer is funding flow: on-ramp friction matters more than headline volume here, because deposits that arrive fastest—especially **USDC**—can move into the book with less delay than card or bank rails, while **SEPA** and **Klarna** users may be constrained by settlement timing, fees, or withdrawal preferences that reduce how aggressively they can add risk during a sudden news move. Recent coverage has noted that resignation odds can jump sharply ahead of a White House announcement, underscoring how thinly traded political event books can reprice on a single headline.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Trump out as President by August 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).