Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Elon Musk’s posting volume on X between 12:00 PM ET on 11 July and 12:00 PM ET on 13 July 2026 is the real-world event driving this market, with the crowd currently assigning a 61% probability to the YES outcome. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC on 13 July, and only main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count toward the total; replies are excluded unless they appear as main feed items.

Historical posting patterns show Musk often compresses activity into weekends, with recent data indicating 22 posts on 13 June 2026 alone [3], while a prior week (3–10 July 2026) saw 160–179 tweets [9]. The 40–64 tweet range is the most defensible single bucket given his pace, though weekend variability keeps certainty below 50% in comparable markets [1]. This 61% implied probability suggests traders are betting on sustained weekend output, but the margin remains thin given past volatility.

Traders should watch for any scheduled SpaceX or Starlink announcements, as Musk frequently posts immediately after major technical updates [5]. A recent X system update on Community Notes, which now sends direct messages to users interacting with flagged posts, could also trigger engagement spikes [7]. Any legal developments related to the rejected bid to void the Twitter fraud verdict may further influence his posting behaviour [8]. These catalysts directly affect funding flows into the market, as deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails determines how quickly traders can adjust positions before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Elon Musk # tweets July 11 - July 13, 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.