Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are still struggling to reach pre-war volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits hovering around 40 vessels despite a recent US-Iran deal that lifted naval blockades and waived tolls for 60 days[6][7]. The market’s 53% YES probability hinges on IMF Portwatch recording a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals before year-end 2026, a threshold that requires a 30–50% surge from current activity levels[4][5]. Historically, similar geopolitical resets in the Gulf saw traffic rebound slowly; after the April ceasefire, only 45 ships passed in weeks despite the agreement, and pre-crisis averages of 100 vessels per day remain far off[2]. Even with the June deal guaranteeing immediate commercial navigation, traffic remains unpredictable and significantly below prewar norms, with mines still needing clearance and Iran retaining potential authority to impose fees post-negotiation[8].

Traders should monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to fully lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, a dependency that could unlock stranded tankers and boost daily counts[6]. The 60-day toll waiver expires in August, and any move by Iran to reintroduce charges before December could dampen recovery momentum[1][8]. Recent data shows traffic stabilised at 30–60 crossings weekly, with a recent spike to 25 vessels marking the highest in two months after the deal[1][7]. However, the 7-day moving average remains estimated at 5–8 ships per day, far below the 60-target, meaning sustained weekly totals of 91+ transits are required to trigger settlement[4]. For platforms like polymarket-klarna.co.uk, this traction reflects funding flows tied to payment friction: users depositing via Klarna or SEPA to bet on geopolitical outcomes are driven by the clarity of withdrawal rails and low on-ramp fees, which deepen book liquidity as catalyst dates approach.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.