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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Fastest route to "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?": payment methods and processing times across the four comparable platforms.

Jared Kushner 70% Steve Witkoff 69% Abbas Araghchi 59% Marco Rubio 54% Volume: $129K Liquidity: $59K Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
70% 30% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
70% 30% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Jared Kushner70%
Steve Witkoff69%
Abbas Araghchi59%
Marco Rubio54%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf51%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi50%
J.D. Vance48%
Rafael Grossi42%
Masoud Pezeshkian40%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani36%
Ishaq Dar35%
Nick Stewart24%
Kazem Gharibabadi22%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi16%
Donald Trump12%
Esmail Qaani12%
Pete Hegseth6%
Ahmad Vahidi6%
Mojtaba Khamenei5%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, who will attend a round of us-iran peace talks by december 31? stands at 70% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market…

Methodology

This page compares Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
Which payment methods are supported?
Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
and

Trade Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by De… on Polymarket Klarna UK

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