Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether a country formally signs a normalisation deal with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before the end-2026 deadline. The market is still pricing that as a low-probability outcome, with the crowd at 6% and the book thin enough that funding flow, rather than just headline conviction, can move the quote.

The historical frame is narrow: the original Abraham Accords brought in the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, with Sudan listed among the associated signatories, but expansion has been limited since then. Recent reporting has kept Saudi Arabia, Syria, Oman and others in the conversation, yet most of those states remain either publicly unconvinced or constrained by wider regional conditions, which is why the market has not moved far above single digits despite periodic diplomatic chatter.[3][6][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are official announcements, US-mediated summit schedules, and any visible sequencing around Gaza, Iran or bilateral security talks, because those are the dependencies that would make a signature politically possible. A recent run of reporting has also shown how fast expectations can reprice when Washington talks up enlargement, but unless there is a publicly confirmed signing and clear Abraham Accords attribution, the market does not resolve.[1][8] On the funding side, this kind of event usually attracts more depth when deposits are easy and cheap: instant on-ramps, low-fee cards or bank rails, and quick withdrawals via SEPA or USDC all matter because they lower friction for smaller, fast-moving positions, which can be more important than the headline probability when liquidity is fragmented.[2][4]

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Methodology

This page compares Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.