Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next prime minister will be the person formally appointed and sworn in after the 2026 Knesset election, so the market is really pricing a coalition outcome rather than a straight vote count. That matters because Israel uses a parliamentary system: the president consults faction leaders, nominates one MK to try to form a majority, and the nominee must secure a confidence vote before taking office.[5][18]

The 35% crowd-implied probability sits in a field shaped by recent precedent. Benjamin Netanyahu remains the incumbent and has returned to office multiple times, but the last two changes of government show how quickly the office can move when a coalition forms around an alternative, with Naftali Bennett taking the role after a razor-thin parliamentary majority in 2021.[9][11][15] For comparison, earlier elections also produced formal appointment and swearing-in only after coalition bargaining, with the president’s nomination and the confidence vote as the decisive steps.[2][5]

Traders should watch candidate slates, alliance deals and whether a viable anti-Netanyahu bloc coalesces around figures such as Gadi Eizenkot or Naftali Bennett, who have been prominent in recent coverage and polling.[1][3][6] The main timing risk is not the election date itself but the post-election coalition process: if no bloc can command a majority quickly, the president’s nomination round and the 28-day mandate can extend the resolution timeline.[2][5] For a payment-led platform, book depth tends to track how easy it is to fund positions; low-friction deposits such as Klarna or SEPA, and fast settlement via USDC, can pull in more retail flow than slower bank rails, which can widen spreads and increase late-news volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).