Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel and Hamas are still trying to turn the first ceasefire into a second-stage deal, but the main sticking points remain Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza’s future security and governance. The current 65% implied probability points to a market that is pricing in real diplomatic momentum, but not a clean or near-certain breakthrough before the settlement window closes.[1][2][4]

Comparable ceasefire talks in this conflict have repeatedly shown the same pattern: first-stage exchanges and troop pullbacks can be agreed relatively quickly, while the second phase slips because it demands a broader political settlement. In the earlier January–March 2025 truce, negotiations for phase two were supposed to begin within days, yet they never properly started before the first phase expired; similar delays have already been reported around this latest framework, with the second phase announced in January 2026 but still stalled by disagreement over disarmament and continued violence.[4][5][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are official statements from Washington, Jerusalem, Doha and Cairo, plus any timetable for mediated talks, hostage-recovery milestones, or a change in the Israeli cabinet’s position. Reuters and other outlets have previously highlighted that phase-two progress depends on linked steps, including remaining hostage issues, a technocratic Gaza administration, and security guarantees; any announcement tying these pieces together would likely move the price faster than informal signalling.[2][3][12][14] On a market like this, payment friction matters too: easier deposits through Klarna or SEPA, and quicker withdrawals via USDC, can widen participation and deepen the book when headline risk spikes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).