Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains suspended following a brief reopening, with the waterway currently closed to most transit calls [1]. Pre-crisis averages exceeded 150 vessels daily, yet mid-2026 data shows non-Iranian transits have collapsed to single digits, a drop of over 95% from normal levels [3][6]. The current 7-day moving average sits between 5 and 8 ships, far below the 60-vessel threshold required for this market to resolve as “Yes” [4]. Historical precedents from the April ceasefire show traffic rebounding only to roughly 40% of peacetime norms even after agreements were signed, suggesting a 1% probability reflects the severe friction in restoring full flow [5][7].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade lift scheduled for 19 July, a dependency explicitly tied to Iran’s commitment to restore traffic within the same window [5]. While a June deal waived tariffs for 60 days, the agreement lacks clarity on long-term authority and toll imposition, creating uncertainty for sustained volume [5]. Recent data indicates traffic has settled into a “new normal” of 30–60 crossings weekly, averaging 40 vessels daily, but this remains insufficient to trigger the 7-day average of 60 [8]. Any announcement extending the tariff waiver or confirming full blockade removal before the settlement deadline will be the primary catalyst for a probability shift.

The market’s depth relies on funding flows that bypass traditional on-ramp friction, allowing users to deposit via Klarna or SEPA and withdraw in USDC without legacy banking delays. This payment infrastructure supports the book liquidity needed to price such low-probability geopolitical events accurately. As deposit fees remain minimal and withdrawal rails are instant, capital can enter quickly to bet on the July 19 deadline, though current data suggests the 60-vessel target is unlikely to be met by 31 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.