Fed Decision in July?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene on 28–29 July 2026 to decide whether to alter the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently 3.75%. With the crowd-implied probability at 72% favouring no change, the market reflects a consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady after its June decision maintained the 3.50%–3.75% range[2][7]. Historically, since the December 2025 cut of 0.25%, the Fed has kept rates on hold to balance job market support against persistent inflation pressures[3]. Derivatives markets still suggest a nearly 60% chance of at least one hike by year-end, yet expectations have softened following news of a potential Iran deal, making a July hold the most probable outcome[3].

Traders should monitor the FOMC’s July 28–29 meeting calendar and any pre-meeting statements from key members for signals on rate trajectory[5]. The immediate catalyst is the June 17 interest rate decision, which confirmed the 3.75% upper bound with no deviation from forecasts[2]. Watch for inflation data releases in the weeks preceding the meeting, as rising prices could shift sentiment toward a hike despite current hold expectations[3]. For those funding positions via Klarna, SEPA, or USDC, the depth of the book correlates directly with deposit flows and withdrawal rail friction; higher on-ramp costs may dampen liquidity, while seamless rails like USDC could amplify book depth as traders adjust to the 72% hold probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.