US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on 14 June 2026, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of that agreement text becomes publicly accessible by 1 July 2026. Public disclosure of treaty language typically occurs through official government channels, legislative filings, or media acquisition of documents, though the timing and scope of release remain uncertain given the sensitive nature of US-Iran negotiations.

Historical precedent suggests mixed outcomes for agreement transparency. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text release within weeks, published by the US State Department and widely circulated. Conversely, earlier confidential agreements between the parties remained partially sealed for years. The 2022 Prisoner Exchange Agreement between the US and Iran involved limited public disclosure of terms. Current geopolitical conditions and domestic political pressures in both countries create competing incentives: transparency builds domestic legitimacy, whilst confidentiality protects negotiating positions on implementation details.

Traders should monitor State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry announcements immediately following the 19 June signing. Congressional pressure for disclosure—particularly from oversight committees—typically accelerates release timelines in US diplomatic practice. Media organisations including Reuters and the Associated Press maintain standing requests for treaty documentation. The settlement window's 12-day buffer between signing and deadline allows time for standard government publication cycles, though last-minute disputes over redaction scope could delay release. Any leaked excerpts circulating on credible news platforms would satisfy the "widely available" criterion, lowering barriers to affirmative resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.